APPETITE Model

Definition

APPETITE is a structured model for comprehensively describing futures scenarios across eight dimensions. It provides a standardised lens for analysing and communicating potential futures within the Foresight Scope framework.

The acronym encodes eight analytical components:

1. Artifacts: Futures artifacts that mark points of interest along a trajectory
2. Patterns and Practices: Emergent sociotechnical patterns and organisational practices that shape futures
3. Problems and Challenges: Specific to a futures scenario based on surrounding context
4. Environmental Context: Drivers and signals (technical, political, economic, social)
5. Technologies: Existing, emerging, and hypothetical
6. Indicators: Metrics for monitoring trends and triggers that signify futures unfolding
7. Trajectories: Transition hypotheses between scenarios (Collapse, Growth, Order, or Transform)
8. Events and Scenarios: Rich potential futures descriptions and story narratives

Operational Use

The APPETITE model structures how FW.VISION analyses, communicates, and operationalises futures scenarios. Each dimension can be independently researched, then assembled into coherent scenario narratives.

Dimension	Focus	Output Type
Artifacts	What tangible markers exist along this trajectory?	Milestone inventory
Patterns	What behavioural/structural shifts emerge?	Trend synthesis
Problems	What new challenges does this future create?	Risk register
Environment	What drives or constrains this trajectory?	Driver analysis
Technologies	What technical capabilities enable or block it?	Technology readiness
Indicators	What signals tell us this future is materialising?	Monitoring framework
Trajectories	How does the transition unfold?	Transition model
Events	What does the full scenario narrative look like?	Scenario narrative

Structural Properties

• Maps directly to the Foresight Scope visual tool
• Trajectories describe “deltas” (changesets between time periods)
• Environmental Context captures historical, present, and future evolution of drivers
• Technologies span a temporal range from existing through emerging to hypothetical
• Each component supports AI agent decomposition: one agent per dimension enables parallel analysis at scale

Application Context

APPETITE bridges the gap between abstract scenario narratives and actionable strategic planning. By decomposing futures into analysable, measurable dimensions, it enables institutional actors to move from speculation to structured governance. Strategic funds use APPETITE to evaluate whether a future is worth actualising. Policy architects use it to stress-test institutional responses across multiple scenario trajectories.