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foresight frameworks futures scenario analysis
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APPETITE Model Active Futuring CITAble Business Index
Originated: May 2025
Foresight Scope
FW.VISION's framework for mapping futures by likelihood: probable, plausible, possible, and preferable. An evolution of the Futures Cone that establishes where different foresight practices operate and which futures are worth actualizing.
Definition
The Foresight Scope (Wang, 2025) maps categories of futures by their likelihood. It is an evolution of the classic Futures Cone, and it establishes the operational domain for strategic foresight and speculative design by distinguishing what is probable from what is plausible, possible, and preposterous.
Traditional planning operates within the probable (business-as-usual) future. FW.VISION deliberately works across the wider scope, because the futures worth pursuing rarely lie on the business-as-usual line.
The Four Likelihood Categories (the four P’s)
| Category | Definition | Practice |
|---|---|---|
| Probable | Business-as-usual extrapolation | What we plan against |
| Plausible | What could happen, evidence-supported alternatives | Strategic foresight |
| Possible | What might happen, given new knowledge or conditions | Speculative design |
| Preposterous | Wild-card and black-swan scenarios at the edge of belief | Provocation, stress-testing |
Preferable Is a Trajectory, Not a Likelihood
A common error is to treat “preferable” as a fifth likelihood band. It is not. Preferable is an opinionated trajectory: a chosen path threaded across scenarios, expressing which future is worth pursuing. Likelihood describes how probable a scenario is; a preferred trajectory is a value-laden route through the scope, connecting the present to a desired far-horizon ambition and passing through the scenarios that would realise it.
This distinction matters operationally: FW.VISION classifies scenarios by the four P’s, then draws preferred trajectories (and their off-ramps) across them. See [[Trajectory Storyline]].
Why It Matters to FW.VISION
The Foresight Scope is the classifying lens for the FW.VISION Trajectory Storylines register, the canonical set of futures within the firm’s range of concern. Every scenario FW.VISION studies is placed in one of the four likelihood categories, and its classification shifts as signals accumulate. A scenario can move from possible toward plausible as evidence mounts; the scope makes that movement legible.
Where the Foresight Scope classifies scenarios by likelihood, the APPETITE model decomposes any single scenario across eight dimensions, and the ForesightScope tool renders the whole set as scenarios on horizon rings within the futures cone, with preferred trajectories drawn across them.
Relationship to Active Futuring
The Foresight Scope, together with a chosen preferred trajectory, identifies the future worth pursuing; Active Futuring is the practice of moving toward it through present action. The scope tells you which future is worth building; active futuring is how a venture builds toward it rather than waiting for it.