Horizons of Concern

Definition

Horizons of Concern are the time bands FW.VISION uses to place futures work in time. They give every scenario and trajectory a temporal address, so a storyline can be read and searched by when its futures land.

The Four Horizons

Horizon	Span	Character
H1	3 to 10 years	Near term; building now, the provable steps
H2	10 to 30 years	Medium term; scaling, coalitions reach density
H3	30 to 50 years	Long term; structural, sovereignty-level outcomes
H4	100 years and beyond	Civilisational; species-scale ambitions

Intermediate Horizons

Futures rarely fall on clean band edges. Intermediate points are expressed with a decimal: H1.5, H2.5, H3.5. A scenario that sits between the medium and long term (roughly 20 to 35 years out) is H2.5. This keeps the language precise without multiplying bands.

Why Horizons Matter

• Searchability. Trajectory storylines are searchable by horizon of concern: a reader can ask what FW.VISION studies at H4 and find the civilisational trajectories (First Light, Second Light) distinct from the near-term work at H1.
• Trajectory shape. A preferred trajectory threads through horizons: present, then H1 proof, then H2 scaling, out to an H3 or H4 ambition.
• Rigour. Placing a claim in a horizon forces honesty about when it could be true, separating a 5-year plan from a 100-year aspiration.

Relationship to the Foresight Scope

The Foresight Scope classifies scenarios by likelihood (the four P’s); Horizons of Concern classify them by time. Together they locate any scenario on two axes: how probable, and how far away. The ForesightScope tool renders horizons as nested cross-sections along the futures cone.